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Saturday, November 30, 2019

German Unemployment Unexpectedly Drops 

© Reuters.  German Unemployment Unexpectedly Drops © Reuters. German Unemployment Unexpectedly Drops

(Bloomberg) -- German unemployment unexpectedly dropped this month as a slump in manufacturing showed signs of stabilizing and the trade tensions that have weighed on exporters eased.

In a report that’s likely to damp any expectations of German fiscal stimulus, the number of people out of work slid by 16,000, compared with estimates for an increase of 6,000. The jobless rate held at 5%, near a record low. The drop in those out of work is good news for the economy after earlier figures Friday showed a sharp drop in retail sales.

Data this month has shown a rebound in factory orders and a small improvement in business confidence. That’s given credence to the insistence by German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s administration that there’s no immediate case to deviate from its balanced budget, a stance backed by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann.

Still, after more than a decade of falling joblessness, the risk remains that Germany’s labor market could be at a turning point.

Manufacturers have announced more than 80,000 job cuts this year, led by automakers such as Volkswagen AG (DE:VOWG_p) struggling with a fundamental shift to electric vehicles, and machine-tool makers such as Siemens AG (DE:SIEGn) hit by cooling global trade.

The labor agency said demand for new labor has eased. The concern is that job losses will erode private spending, which has supported the economy in recent quarters and helped prevent it from falling into a recession this year.

The International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank have called on Germany to dip into its fiscal surplus to bolster public spending. That’s part of a broader call -- addressed by ECB President Christine Lagarde in her first major speech -- for a new European policy mix in which government investment is stepped up to ease the burden on monetary stimulus.

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