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Thursday, November 14, 2019

Gold Continues Upward in Mid-$1400s on New Trade-War Uncertainty

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com – For a second day in a row, there’s less-than-comforting news about a U.S.-China trade deal and gold is soaring once again from a push higher by those long the yellow metal and awaiting such somber news.

Gold futures for December delivery on New York’s COMEX settled up $9.60, or 0.7%, at $1,463.30 per ounce. The Wall Street Journal reported that the trade talks have stalled over agriculture purchases.

President Trump previously said China committed to buying up to $50 billion in U.S. soybeans, pork and other agricultural products as part of a phase one trade agreement. But China is unwilling to quantify its farm purchases, denting hopes that the phase one deal will be signed sooner rather than later, the Journal said, citing sources.

China is also resisting U.S. demands to make reforms on forced technology transfer, which the Trump administration has previously said would be addressed in future trade deals with Beijing.

Spot gold, which tracks live trades in bullion, was up $6.12, or 0.4%, at $1,463.06 per ounce by 3:47 PM ET (19:50 GMT).

Both gold futures and bullion rose in after-hours trade on Tuesday after hitting three-month lows for three days in a row.

The rebound came after Trump conceded during a speech at the New York Economic Club on Tuesday that he had little news to share on when the much-anticipated phase one of the U.S.-China trade deal will be signed. “Soon,” the president said, which he maintained could only come with a deal that’s “good” for the U.S. economy and companies – all things the market has heard before.

Despite Wednesday’s rebound in gold, some analysts were still calling for a caution on the metal, which has lost some $50 from last month’s peaks above $1,500.

“We think the balance of risks still rests on the downside, as bloated long positioning will likely continue to weigh on prices at a time when loss aversion is a tough sell,” analysts at TD Securities said in a note on gold.

“Open interest still sits near all-time highs, which suggests that a shake-out of the excess length has yet to take place. Meanwhile, our estimated breakeven entry point for the bulls stands close to market pricing at $1438/oz, suggesting that the pain trade is still to the downside in the near term.”

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